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+--- Thread: Winter Mercato - 2025 (/showthread.php?tid=3140)
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - Zio Fester - 02-25-2025
(02-25-2025, 09:07 AM)Beppe Wrote: Roma is on fire recently, wouldnt be surprised if we finished the season in 9th place.
If mess up two games v Bologna and Lazio this week will be 9th and then 10th place likely as Udinese are not far behind.
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - Zio Fester - 02-25-2025
Schira: Milan have opened talks for Club Brugge’s left back Maxim De Cuyper. Positive meeting with De Cuyper’s intermediary last week.
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - xudong - 02-25-2025
If we don't get 4th, then for me, 9th or 10th may even be better in the long run.
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - nefremo - 02-25-2025
Still plenty of games to go. Let's see what happens on Thursday. Winning keeps all cards on the table with 12 games to go.
The only thing that gives me hope is that I actually see us playing well. I know I'm in the minority of that, but I see a team that plays intense football. The bad results are weighing on the confidence, for sure. But I'm just waiting for us to stop beating ourselves. I want to see one game where we don't make an individual mistake that results in a goal/red card. I mean, it has to stop sooner or later right? Right!?!?
The Bologna game is i think the last chance for us. Failure to win, and that'll be it for our CL hopes. Might as well already start planning roe next season at that point
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - Sleeping Giant - 02-25-2025
The equation is pretty simple, 30 points in 13 games, that's it that would be most most likely will secure Top 4 by looking at last 4 years trend. I might be wrong as I am not statistician or Mathematician
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - nefremo - 02-25-2025
Curious of how you came up with that equation? You are thinking 74/75 points is what it'll take to reach 4th?
It sounds about right btw. We have to win the 1v1s with the direct competition too though. Bologna obviously this Thursday, but I actually don't count them as competition for the CL. Lazio on the other hand, yes. And we play against them at rhe San Siro this coming weekend. Of we fail to win these next 2 games (Bologna/Lazio), then there is zero hope left.
It sucks that we already played Juventus. So can't gain much there, but a couple wins can really propel us with confidence. If we manage that, I don't see the 5 pts difference between us and them as something unattainable.
Unfortunately, we are in this situation again where we have to hope on others and nothing is in our own hands. Hard to believe the season has come to this in February.
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - ACM1899 - 02-25-2025
(02-25-2025, 01:57 PM)ACM2023 Wrote: If we don't get 4th, then for me, 9th or 10th may even be better in the long run.
Not making the top 4 as sad as it is to say is the only chance of management HOPEFULLY waking up and doing things.
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - Sleeping Giant - 02-26-2025
(02-25-2025, 04:46 PM)nefremo Wrote: Curious of how you came up with that equation? You are thinking 74/75 points is what it'll take to reach 4th?
It sounds about right btw. We have to win the 1v1s with the direct competition too though. Bologna obviously this Thursday, but I actually don't count them as competition for the CL. Lazio on the other hand, yes. And we play against them at rhe San Siro this coming weekend. Of we fail to win these next 2 games (Bologna/Lazio), then there is zero hope left.
It sucks that we already played Juventus. So can't gain much there, but a couple wins can really propel us with confidence. If we manage that, I don't see the 5 pts difference between us and them as something unattainable.
Unfortunately, we are in this situation again where we have to hope on others and nothing is in our own hands. Hard to believe the season has come to this in February.
Those 4 points dropped against Cagliari would haunt us imo, Lazio will get tired playing Europa and I hope they win Europa and Fiorentina wins Conference league, does that give Italy a extra spot for CL???
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - Sampinjon - 02-26-2025
(02-26-2025, 12:13 PM)Sleeping Giant Wrote: Those 4 points dropped against Cagliari would haunt us imo, Lazio will get tired playing Europa and I hope they win Europa and Fiorentina wins Conference league, does that give Italy a extra spot for CL???
Will depend on results from other countries. Italy lost second place after latest results:
1. England, 20.892 - (6/7)
2. Spain, 19.035 - (6/7)
3. Italy, 18.187 - (4/8)
Maybe if, in addition to Lazio and Fiorentina trophies, merda wins CL
Also, keep in mind that their wins are "valued more", because every earned point is divided with number of total participants. From each point England and Spain "keep" 0,14 while Italy 0,12.
Each win brings 2 points, draw 1 point. So, with math applied:
-win for Eng/Spa clubs 0,28 points for table *** draw 0,14
-win for Ita clubs 0,24 *** draw 0,12
At the moment, we are 3,5 wins behind Spain. So, in order to regain second spot from them, Italian clubs need to have 4 wins more than Spanish clubs till the end of all 3 euro competitions.
RE: Winter Mercato - 2025 - Zio Fester - 02-26-2025
Gazzetta dello Sport predict that it will take a minimum of 70 points to finish in the Champions League position. Atalanta claimed fourth place with 69 points last season, while Milan and Juventus both finished in fourth place on 70 points exactly in 2022-23 and 2021-22 respectively.
If the 70 points remains the benchmark for Champions League qualification, then Milan will need an average of 2.23 points per game from their remaining 13 league matches of the 2024-25 campaign.
Effectively need to win 10 out of 13, or 9 with three draws, and hope Juventus and others fall off.